The Fourth Turning


According to a historian theory, world events unfold in predictable cycles of roughly 80 years, that you can devide into 4 chapters (or turnings), (1) Spring (Growth), (2) Summer (Maturation), (3) Automn (early old age and reconstruction), and (4) Winter (late old age and destruction). There are strong parallels with the 1930s today.

Western societies have experienced this pattern for centuries, and we are experiencing the 4th turning of the current cycle right now. Turnings can be interrupted, stretched and cut short, but each of the 4 turnings has about the length of one generation (20 years).

Central Banks worldwide managed a recovery of asset valuations through ultra low interest rates, credit expansion and the dilution of their currencies. These interventions prevented (so far) the market from slipping into the endphase of the 4th turning, the final destruction. Meanwhile, with valuations at all time highs (again), a dysfunctional 'Alice in the Wonderland' world, and the end-phase of the 4th turning delayed by many years, one wonders what is going to happen next ...

Strauss–Howe Generational Theory